Weekly Market Commentary September 15, 2025
Economic data released this past week suggests a mixed but slightly cooling inflationary environment. The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 0.3% month-over-month, with CPI increasing 0.4%, bringing the year-over-year CPI to 2.9%, a slight uptick from July’s 2.7%. This increase implies elevated but relatively stable inflation, suggesting underlying price pressures are still present but not accelerating. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised markets after a 0.9% increase in July, with a 0.1% decline in August, marking the second instance of deflation in wholesale prices this year. With wholesale inflation easing, this can be a signal for less pricing pressure in the supply chain.
Labor market data showed signs of softening. Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years. This uptick may reflect a weakening labor market, with companies taking a cautious hiring approach amid economic uncertainty.
Overall, the data suggests the economy is entering a more balanced phase. Inflation appears to be stabilizing, with price pressures no longer accelerating, while signs of labor market softening are beginning to emerge. This combination points to a shift in momentum, where growth is steady, but risks are rising. It may prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious approach, weighing inflation control against the need to support a cooling economy.
Click HERE to read more.