Weekly Market Commentary March 9, 2026
Week in Review
Last week delivered many important macroeconomic releases, giving investors insight into an evolving U.S. economic landscape. In addition, the conflict in Iran has escalated dramatically, adding significant economic concerns.
Manufacturing data reflected moderate expansion. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.6, slightly above the 51.2 forecast, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion. However, this was down from January’s reading of 53.4, signaling softer momentum and less new orders. For investors, this reinforces a narrative of sluggish industrial activity.
ADP Nonfarm Employment increased by 63,000 in February, above the consensus estimate of 50,000. This growth within the private sector was concentrated in construction, education, and health services. The upside surprise here suggests that labor cooling remains gradual, tempering expectations of imminent Federal Reserve easing.
The S&P Global Services PMI for February came in at 51.7, lower than the 52.3 expected. This decline was due to slower new orders, weaker export demand, and difficult trading conditions. However, the services sector continued to grow, with ISM Services PMI reporting a reading of 54.0, the 20th consecutive month of expansion.
The headline payrolls print was the largest shock of the week. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, far below the expected increase of 58,000, with unemployment rising to 4.4%. This raises concerns about labor-market softening, though wage growth has remained firm, complicating Federal Reserve policy expectations.
War in Iran
On the geopolitical front, joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, targeting senior leadership, nuclear infrastructure, missile sites and strategic military assets. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in these strikes. Iran has retaliated with sustained missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. bases, Israel and Gulf nations allied with the U.S. President Trump has signaled that the campaign against Iran will continue for “as long as it takes.”
Iran has moved to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting a waterway responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and natural gas shipments. Traffic has dropped by more than 80%, with major firms suspending operations and insurers withdrawing coverage. This has led to oil markets pricing in a multi-week disruption. In addition, Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi, said the ongoing conflict could force Gulf oil exporters to halt production within days.
Effects of this conflict have been felt almost immediately. On Friday, WTI oil prices surged 12% to $90.90 a barrel, and Brent oil rose 8.5% to $92.69 a barrel. Weekly gains were 36% for WTI and 27% for Brent, the largest percentage increases on record since 1983 and 1991, respectively. Large increases in the price of crude oil have in turn pushed gasoline prices higher, as well. These price increases have rekindled inflation fears, and markets have begun to reduce bets that the Federal Reserve will ease rates further despite the weakness in this week’s jobs report.
This conflict is broader and more intense than prior Iran flare-ups. Analysts suggest the war could last up to eight weeks, but if history is any guide this conflict can last far longer than most expect. With that said, even a short conflict could lead to lasting market dislocation. If the strait remains impaired, oil prices may rise further, threatening global growth. Overall, the conflict remains highly unstable, and we believe markets will continue to price in elevated geopolitical risk until a clear path toward de-escalation emerges.
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