Weekly Market Commentary March 30, 2026
Week in Review
It was a short and relatively light week for economic data, but the releases still provided a useful snapshot of the economy. The main focus was the March flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, where S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.6, coming in above consensus of 51.3. That suggested factory activity remained in expansion and held up better than expected. On the services side, Flash U.S. Services PMI slipped to 51.1 from 51.7, coming in below expectations of 51.5. The softer services reading pulled the Composite PMI down to 51.4 from 51.9, its lowest level in nearly a year. The overall takeaway was a mixed but still positive one: manufacturing showed resilience, while services lost some momentum, pointing to continued growth but with a less broad-based foundation.
Labor data was also steady. Initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week, broadly in line with expectations, while continuing claims fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million. That combination still points to a labor market that is cooling only gradually. Claims remain low by historical standards, and the drop in continuing claims suggests layoffs are still fairly contained, even if hiring demand is not especially strong. In other words, the labor backdrop continues to look more like “low-hire, low-fire” than outright deterioration.
Energy was another important piece of the week’s macro story. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 6.9 million barrels, a much larger build than markets had anticipated. Normally, a large inventory build would imply softer demand or stronger supply, but this release landed in the context of an oil market still shaped by broader geopolitical and supply concerns. As a result, the data provided some near-term offset but did not fully remove inflation concerns tied to elevated energy prices. That remains important for the broader macro picture, since higher oil prices can pressure both consumers and business input costs.
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