Weekly Market Commentary November 24, 2025
WEEK IN REVIEW
This week’s economic data releases offered a broad update on labor-market momentum, inflation pressures, and business-sector activity, particularly important because several reports were delayed during the recent government shutdown. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes signaled a committee still committed to a data-dependent stance. Officials noted cooling in some inflation components but emphasized uneven progress, and several expressed concern inflation could stall above the 2% target. While members acknowledged loosening labor conditions, there was no urgency to cut rates; the tone suggested the Fed is comfortable staying restrictive until inflation improves more consistently.
Labor-market data showed gradual cooling. Initial jobless claims remained low, underscoring resilience in labor demand, but continuing claims drifted higher, suggesting it is taking longer for unemployed workers to find jobs. The nonfarm payrolls report, delayed earlier by the shutdown, showed moderating job growth concentrated in healthcare and government, while cyclical sectors like manufacturing and transportation softened. The unemployment rate ticked higher, partly due to rising labor-force participation. This mix – steady hiring, slightly higher unemployment, and broader labor supply – supports a narrative of normalization rather than recessionary stress.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed in contraction, pointing to muted orders and cautious inventory management, though input costs eased and delivery times improved, signaling supply-chain inflation continues to unwind. Services PMI remained modestly expansionary, with stable demand in consumer-facing categories despite elevated wage and rent costs. Together, PMI data reflect an economy still growing but at a slower, uneven pace as rate sensitivity spreads from goods to services.
Overall, these releases confirm slower but steady job creation and gradual cooling in economic momentum. Fed minutes show policymakers remain cautious, balancing inflation progress with the risk of easing too soon.
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