Weekly Market Commentary March 10, 2025

Market indices closed the week lower as markets grappled with the timeframe surrounding tariffs and possible labor market softening.

• The S&P 500 declined by -3.50%

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by -2.65%

• The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by -3.73%

• The 10-Year Treasury yield closed at 4.32%

Last week, several key economic indicators were released, providing valuable insights into the health of the economy. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Services PMI offered a snapshot of business conditions in the manufacturing and services sectors, respectively. The Manufacturing PMI was higher than forecasted at 52.7, indicating potential expansion in the manufacturing sector. In contrast, the Services PMI was lower than the previous reading at 51, suggesting a contraction in the services sector. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report showed a significant decline, coming in at about 50% lower than the previous reading at 77,000, giving an early indication of weakening private-sector employment trends. The initial jobless claims report provided a weekly update on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits, showing fewer filings than anticipated. Furthermore, the Average Hourly Earnings report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided insights into labor market conditions and wage growth, which increased by 0.3%.

In the energy sector, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count was closely watched for insights into drilling activity and future production levels. Friday’s reading showed no change from the previous reading. These indicators, along with the analysis of credit spreads, currency trends, and yield curve positioning, helped investors and policymakers assess the overall economic landscape and make informed decisions.

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