Weekly Market Commentary June 9, 2025
The week began with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report on Monday, which showed continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. The index came in at 48.5 for May, slightly below April’s 48.7, marking the third consecutive month of contraction. Trade-related concerns and rising tariffs were cited as key challenges, with export and import activity weakening significantly.
On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report indicated that job openings rose to 7.4 million in April, up from 7.2 million the previous month. This suggested steady labor demand, though the gains were uneven across industries. Professional and business services saw notable increases, while leisure and hospitality experienced declines. Layoffs also rose, pointing to some volatility in the labor market. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers remained at 1.0, indicating a balanced but cautious hiring environment.
Wednesday’s ISM Services PMI brought a surprise contraction, falling to 49.9 in May from 51.6 in April. This marked the first decline in the services sector since mid-2024. New orders dropped sharply, and business activity stagnated, though the employment index returned to slight expansion. Cost pressures intensified, with the prices index reaching its highest level in nearly a year, raising concerns about inflation in service industries.
The week concluded with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 139,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wage growth accelerated slightly, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year. Job gains were led by healthcare and hospitality, while government employment declined. Despite downward revisions to previous months, the labor market showed resilience amid broader economic uncertainty.
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