Weekly Market Commentary December 15, 2025
WEEK IN REVIEW
Last week’s economic calendar painted a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy, reflecting a softening labor market, mixed consumer activity, and divergent signals from manufacturing and services sectors.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, released Tuesday for October, showed job openings steady at 7.7 million, holding at a 4.6% rate. The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision saw the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.50-3.75%. The Fed acknowledged slowing job growth and persistent inflation, signaling vigilance ahead. Chair Powell emphasized data dependence, while the “dot plot” suggested only one more rate cut in 2026.
On Thursday, initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, marking the largest weekly increase since the pandemic’s onset. Despite seasonal volatility post-Thanksgiving — economists stressed the four-week average remained stable — this spike reinforced market concerns about labor market fragility.
Friday’s retail sales data for November revealed a broad slowdown. Headline sales were flat month-over-month, below expectations, while the “control group” (excluding auto, gas, and services) rebounded modestly at +0.7%. Electronics and furniture saw notable strength, but building materials lagged, hinting at softer consumer momentum.
In sum, the week’s releases underscore a labor market losing steam and a cautious consumer base. The Fed’s rate cut aligns with this evolving backdrop, but persistent inflation and mixed signals leave further easing uncertain.
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