Weekly Market Commentary April 7, 2025
Market indexes declined last week as investors adjusted their future expectations in response to increasing global trade tensions.
The S&P 500 declined -9.08%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -7.86%
The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell -9.77%
The 10-Year Treasury yield closed at 3.99%
Last week, markets were transfixed by the sweeping tariffs presented by U.S. President Trump and the idea of an ever-escalating trade war. However, in the background, several key economic reports were released that might have been overlooked. Here is a summary of the important economic reports from last week.
The labor market data was significant. February’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed fewer job openings than forecast, confirming a softening labor market. On Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report for March came in higher than expected, adding 155,000 jobs compared to the expected 118,000, contrasting February’s underperformance. Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report confirmed March’s labor market strength, with employment changes beating forecasts, adding 225,000 jobs compared to the expected 137,000. The Private Nonfarm Payrolls report also exceeded expectations at 209,000. The Unemployment Rate for March ticked higher to 4.2%. Weekly employment data provided mixed signals, with continuing jobless claims higher than expected and initial jobless claims lower.
Survey data from the Services and Manufacturing industries was also notable. S&P Global revised both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) upward, providing optimism. However, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data disappointed. The ISM survey, which focuses on larger companies and is based on data from purchasing and supply executives, indicated conflicting inflationary pressures. Manufacturing prices rose, while services prices fell.
Overall, last week’s data highlighted the complexity of the economy. The mixed signals from various reports suggest that market participants, including the Federal Reserve, will need to carefully navigate the ever-changing economic landscape. The contrasting data points underscore the importance of a nuanced approach to economic analysis and policy-making.
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